Introduction to Nuclear Arms Control

The last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia, known as the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), is set to expire in February 2026. Russian President Vladimir Putin has hinted at the possibility of extending this treaty, but his conditions are subtle yet clear: he wants the international community to disregard Ukraine’s concerns about not being included in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.

Background of the New START Treaty

The New START treaty, established during the Obama era, limits the strategic nuclear arsenals of both the United States and Russia. In 2023, Putin suspended Russia’s participation in the treaty, stating that he would only resume participation if the United States stopped providing aid to Ukraine and included the United Kingdom and France in the treaty. Recently, according to the Russian state-backed news agency TASS, Putin has suggested putting New START back on the table, reminding everyone that the treaty is set to expire in a year.

Current Relations and Negotiations

The comments about resuming New START come at a critical time for U.S.-Russia relations. Moscow initially invaded Ukraine in 2014 and launched a full-scale ground invasion in 2022. The Trump administration has repeatedly stated that the invasion would not have occurred under their presidency and has expressed a desire to broker a deal to end the war. However, their narrative depicts Ukraine as the aggressor, using American aid to provoke Russia.

Ongoing Negotiations

Negotiations between the White House and the Kremlin to end the war are ongoing in Saudi Arabia, with Kyiv noticeably absent from the negotiations. Trump and others have publicly blamed Ukraine for Russia’s aggression and called for President Volodymyr Zelensky to face an election. After mentioning New START, Putin criticized Ukraine for wanting to be part of the talks, saying, "Do they want to sit here at the negotiating table and be mediators between Russia and the United States? Probably not. Why the hysteria here? It is misplaced."

Nuclear Diplomacy

Nuclear diplomacy is largely about signaling. Both the United States and Russia possess over 5,000 nuclear weapons, enough to destroy the world several times over. Neither side wants to use them, but they want to maintain them to keep the threat of potential use ever-present. Since 2022, Russia has sent signals indicating its willingness to use nuclear weapons if the war in Ukraine does not go in its favor. Putin has touted new nuclear weapons under development, and Russian media frequently discusses the use and survival of nuclear weapons.

The New START Treaty’s Significance

The New START treaty limited the deployment of strategic nuclear weapons by both the United States and Russia. It was a complex treaty that allowed for on-site inspections of nuclear installations to ensure compliance. However, COVID-19 halted these inspections, and things never returned to normal. Putin suspended Russia’s participation in 2023. Trump has expressed a desire to eliminate nuclear weapons, and Putin’s suggestion to resume New START could be seen as a signal that he is willing to meet the United States partway.

Challenges and Contradictions

However, Trump’s first term was marked by the shredding of existing nuclear arms control treaties. He also fired hundreds of members of the National Nuclear Security Agency before attempting to rehire them. The Secretary of Defense has promised not to cut funding for the modernization of the U.S. nuclear arsenal, which is slated to cost $2 trillion. On February 19, the United States conducted its own nuclear signaling by test-launching a nuclear-capable Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile as part of routine operations.

Conclusion

The test launch was described as a demonstration of the readiness and professionalism of U.S. nuclear forces, providing confidence in the nation’s nuclear deterrence mission. As the expiration of the New START treaty approaches, the delicate dance of nuclear diplomacy continues, with both sides signaling their intentions and capabilities in a complex and dangerous game of geopolitical chess.