A recent climatological analysis by a group of researchers suggests that a significant portion of icy Greenland may be on the brink of collapse.

The term “soon” is relative, but according to the research team, a temperature increase of just a few degrees could trigger a catastrophic chain of events, leading to the demise of the second-largest ice sheet on Earth. This, in turn, would result in a global sea level rise of over 20 feet (6.1 meters) and have a profound impact on the surrounding marine environment. The team’s findings were published in The Cryosphere.

The Greenland ice sheet is one of two major ice sheets on Earth, with the other located in Antarctica. Together, these ice sheets contain more than 68% of the planet’s fresh water, as reported by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The Greenland ice sheet covers an vast area of 656,000 square miles (1.7 million square kilometers), which is approximately 80% of the island. In some areas, the ice is over 1.9 miles (3 km) thick, and if the entire sheet were to melt, sea levels would rise by 24 feet (7.4 meters).

The research team utilized a climate model to simulate the effects of different climate scenarios on Greenland’s surface mass. They found that the tipping point for the ice sheet occurs when approximately 230 gigatons of ice are lost in a single year, which corresponds to a 60% decrease from the pre-industrial equilibrium. This event would mark the point of no return for Greenland’s ice, which would disappear completely within a relatively short period, estimated to be between 8,000 and 40,000 years, according to the Science X Network.

While this scenario may seem hypothetical, the team’s research suggests that it could be triggered by a global temperature increase of 6.12 degrees Fahrenheit (3.4 degrees Celsius) compared to pre-industrial levels, making it a more plausible and alarming possibility.

The team’s findings come on the heels of a Nature paper published last year, which found that calving from Greenland’s ice sheet accelerated significantly between 1985 and 2022. Furthermore, the previous research underestimated mass losses from Greenland by as much as 20%, and the reported mass loss had “minimal direct impact on global sea level but is sufficient to affect ocean circulation and the distribution of heat energy around the globe.”

Greenland has been in the spotlight recently due to President Trump’s repeated claims about wanting to buy the island from Denmark. Greenland has been a part of Denmark for six centuries, although it gained autonomy in 1979 and has its own local government, with the island remaining a territory of Denmark.

President Trump’s insistence on acquiring Greenland has prompted some of his political allies and followers to make ridiculous moves. For instance, Congressman Buddy Carter of Georgia introduced H.R.1161, a bill aimed at authorizing the President to negotiate the acquisition of Greenland and renaming it “Red, White, and Blueland.” This bill serves as a reminder that much of American politics is focused on grandstanding rather than serving the interests of constituents.

Although it may take thousands of years for the tipping point to be reached, the study highlights a plausible scenario that could unfold if global warming continues at its current rate. This serves as a worrying sign, regardless of whether one is interested in acquiring Greenland or simply concerned about the well-being of the planet.