Space Weather Exercise Reveals Gaps in Forecasting
A recent exercise involving several U.S. agencies has highlighted significant weaknesses in scientists’ ability to predict space weather, which could put crucial systems at risk in the event of a severe solar storm.

The Exercise
The Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation (SWORM) task force, which includes the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), organized the exercise to assess the U.S. government’s preparedness for a solar storm. The results, published in a recent report, reveal major limitations in space weather forecasting. The exercise took place on May 8-9, 2024, at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) in Laurel, Maryland, and at a Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) site in Denver, Colorado.

Simulation Scenario
The exercise involved a simulated space weather scenario, comprising four modules that mimicked a series of solar events with adverse effects on Earth and space systems. These effects included radio communication blackouts, loss of GPS functionality, power outages, intense radiation exposure for astronauts and satellites, and an inability to track and communicate with orbiting satellites. One of the modules was set in the future, asking participants to imagine a hypothetical scenario occurring over eight days in January and February 2028. In this scenario, NOAA tracked an active region on the solar surface that rotated to a position where it was pointed toward Earth, while a crew of astronauts was en route to the Moon aboard the Orion spacecraft.

Real-World Implications
Coincidentally, a severe geomagnetic storm (G5) struck Earth on May 10, 2024, causing some deleterious effects on the power grid and spectacular auroras across the globe. The storm also increased atmospheric density in low Earth orbit, affecting satellites. This real-world event underscored the importance of accurate space weather forecasting, which is currently hindered by the difficulty of predicting the impact of coronal mass ejections on Earth.

Forecasting Challenges
Space weather forecasters monitor the Sun’s activity and incoming coronal mass ejections, but predicting their effects on Earth is a significant challenge. According to Shawn Dahl, service coordinator for the Space Weather Prediction Center, scientists can only determine the composition and magnetic strength of a coronal mass ejection about 15-45 minutes before it hits Earth. Participants in the exercise found that this inability to predict the impact of a coronal mass ejection was the most significant challenge in space weather forecasting.

Recommendations
The report suggests investing in next-generation space weather satellites and developing and deploying more sensors to monitor space weather drivers. It also recommends that U.S. agencies collaborate with international partners and the private sector to improve preparedness for space weather events. As the report emphasizes, "Ongoing preparedness efforts for a space weather event are crucial because an extreme event has the potential to severely impact our nation’s critical infrastructure and threaten our national security."