Asteroid 2024 YR4 No Longer a Significant Threat to Earth

After causing concern over the past few weeks due to its increasing odds of hitting Earth in 2032, the potentially hazardous asteroid 2024 YR4 has seen its impact probability plummet to near zero. According to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), the asteroid’s current chance of colliding with our planet in 2032 is now at 0.28%, or a 1-in-360 shot.

This significant decrease in odds is a welcome relief, especially considering the asteroid’s previous 3.1% chance of impact, which translated to 1-in-32 odds. Although the risk is not entirely eliminated, it is now considered extremely low. The asteroid’s size, estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide, is still large enough to cause significant damage to a city or region if it were to hit Earth, but it would not lead to a global catastrophe.

Torino Impact Hazard Scale Rating

The asteroid’s initial impact probability had earned it a rating of 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, indicating a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. However, with the updated odds, its rating has been downgraded to 1, signifying a routine discovery with no unusual level of danger and an extremely unlikely chance of collision.

When the asteroid’s odds rose earlier this week, it briefly surpassed the hazard level of the asteroid Apophis, which was once considered one of the most hazardous asteroids but is now deemed safe for at least a century. The Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) first detected 2024 YR4 in late December, and its odds of impact had been increasing steadily until the recent update.

Monitoring and Tracking

As astronomers continued to observe the asteroid, its potential path window has shrunk, making it very unlikely that it will hit Earth. The asteroid is currently moving away from our planet but is expected to swing by in 2028, with a potential impact possible in 2032. With time of the essence, researchers made as many observations as possible before the asteroid becomes too faint for ground-based telescopes to detect in April.

While 2024 YR4 still poses a slight risk to Earth within the next 100 years, recent estimates from space agency experts suggest that the danger has decreased significantly. As a result, the asteroid is no longer considered a significant threat, and its monitoring will continue to ensure that its trajectory remains predictable and safe.