Measles Outbreak in Texas and New Mexico Expected to Worsen
The ongoing measles outbreak in Texas and New Mexico, which has already sickened hundreds and hospitalized dozens, is predicted to escalate before improving. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued a warning to healthcare providers, stating that the deadly virus will continue to spread rapidly.
CDC’s Warning and Current Situation
The CDC’s warning was issued in a recent Health Alert Network (HAN) Health Advisory, which can be found here. As of Tuesday, Texas health officials have documented 223 measles cases in the state, with 29 hospitalized and one dead. Additionally, measles has been reported in other states, including New Mexico, New York, Alaska, and Florida.
Origin and Spread of the Outbreak
The Texas measles outbreak began in mid-January and has primarily affected people living in Mennonite communities in rural western Texas, many of whom are unvaccinated. In late February, an unvaccinated child in Texas died from the preventable disease, marking the first measles-related death in the US in a decade. The outbreak has also spread to neighboring regions of New Mexico, with 33 reported cases. An investigation is ongoing into the death of a New Mexico resident who tested positive for measles.
Factors Contributing to the Outbreak
Measles is highly contagious and can quickly spread through communities with low vaccination rates. To prevent widespread transmission, approximately 94% of a population needs to be vaccinated against measles, a concept known as herd immunity. Local health officials have expressed concerns that hundreds may have already been infected, and the outbreak is likely to worsen. The outbreak is the largest seen in Texas in nearly 30 years.
Measles in the US
Measles was locally eliminated in the US 25 years ago, but outbreaks have occasionally occurred in areas with low vaccination rates. While the risk of widespread measles in the US remains low due to high national vaccination rates, the CDC predicts that the situation in Texas and New Mexico will worsen. The CDC advisory states that the outbreak is continuing "to expand rapidly."
National Measles Cases
This year, measles cases have been reported in 13 states. Oklahoma health officials recently reported two cases connected to the Texas and New Mexico clusters. Other cases appear to be travel-related, but further outbreaks could emerge.
Comparing to Previous Years
The total reported measles cases in 2025 are on track to surpass the 285 cases reported nationwide in 2024. It remains to be seen whether this year will be worse than 2019, which saw widespread outbreaks in New York that threatened the US’s local measles elimination status.
Vaccine Safety and Misinformation
The recent outbreaks have occurred under the watch of Robert F. Kennedy Jr, the new head of the US Department of Health and Human Services. Despite expressing some support for measles vaccination, Kennedy has a history of spreading misinformation about vaccine safety, including the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine. He has also promoted scientifically unsupported treatments for measles. The CDC clearly states that the MMR vaccine "remains the most important tool for preventing measles."
