Measles Outbreak: A Looming Threat to the US

The United States is facing a significant threat from measles, with research published in JAMA suggesting that tens of millions of cases could occur over the next 25 years if vaccination rates decline. This is particularly concerning given the presence of vaccine deniers in high levels of government and the alarming lack of awareness about the dangers of measles among the general population.

The Alarming Projections

A simulation model developed by researchers at Stanford University has projected that a 50% drop in childhood vaccinations could lead to 51.2 million measles cases, 9.9 million rubella cases, 4.3 million poliomyelitis cases, and 197 diphtheria cases over a 25-year period. This would result in 10.3 million hospitalizations and 159,200 deaths. Even if vaccination rates remain the same as in 2025, the model predicts over 850,000 measles cases in the US over the next 25 years.

The Importance of Vaccination Rates

A 10% drop in MMR immunization rates could lead to 11.1 million measles cases in the US over the next 25 years, while a 5% rise in vaccinations could reduce the number of cases to just 5,800. The population needs a vaccination rate of approximately 95% to achieve herd immunity for measles. Current vaccination coverage is estimated to be between 87.7% and 95.6%. Vaccination rates vary by state, with New York having an estimated childhood vaccination rate of 97.7% for the 2023-24 school year, compared to Idaho’s rate of 79.6%.

The Consequences of Measles

Before the measles vaccine was introduced in 1963, between 3 million and 4 million Americans contracted measles each year, resulting in tens of thousands of hospitalizations and approximately 400-500 deaths annually. Measles also causes "immune amnesia," which resets the immune system, making it more vulnerable to other infections. The US is currently experiencing its worst measles outbreak in a quarter century, with over 800 cases reported in 25 states, resulting in three deaths, including two children in Texas and an adult in New Mexico.

The Anti-Vaccine Movement

The parents of two children who died from measles have expressed no regret over their decision not to vaccinate, citing misinformation and conspiracy theories. The anti-vaccine group Children’s Health Defense, formerly chaired by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has been spreading false information about vaccine safety. Kennedy, now the head of the Department of Health and Human Services, has announced plans to reveal the "cause" of autism by fall and has assembled a team of scientists to investigate the issue.

A Troubling Trend

Kennedy’s rhetoric has raised concerns, with him suggesting that severely autistic people do not pay taxes or go on dates and implying that many diseases are new or did not exist when he was a child. He has also proposed compiling a database of autism cases, pulling private health records of Americans. The reason Kennedy may not have heard of these diseases is that they were often undiagnosed or not recognized, and when they were, people were often institutionalized. His own aunt, Rosemary Kennedy, was institutionalized and lobotomized due to erratic behavior attributed to delivery difficulties.

A Cause for Alarm

The fact that the nation’s top health officials are promoting anti-science views and compiling lists of people deemed unfit is alarming. Kennedy’s anti-vaccine stance is likely to get millions of people sick in the coming decades if allowed to continue. With President Donald Trump in office, things are likely to get worse before they get better. The US is facing a looming threat from measles, and it is essential to take action to prevent this crisis from unfolding.