Introduction to Devastating Tornadoes

Sandra Anderson was not anticipating the storm to be severe. When her grandchildren asked if the dogs should be brought inside, Anderson was hesitant, believing they would be fine. However, later that night, an alert on her phone informed her of a tornado tearing through her hometown of London, Kentucky. Seconds later, it hit her neighborhood.

The Fury of the Tornado

“I hollered for my handicapped son to hit the hallway,” Anderson said. “Windows were exploding. There was such a horrifying howl before it hit.” Tornadoes are measured using the Enhanced Fujita Scale, which ranks them on a scale of 1 to 5 according to their wind speed and potential for damage. The mile-wide twister that blew out Anderson’s windows and flattened entire neighborhoods traveled over 50 miles and clocked in at EF-4, making it a particularly violent one. Meanwhile, an EF-3 funnel cloud cut a 23-mile path through the St. Louis area.

Broader Impacts of the Storm

Both were part of a broader system that stretched from Missouri to Kentucky, spawning over 70 tornadoes that killed at least 28 people and leveled or damaged thousands of structures. Eastern Kentucky bore the brunt of the fury; 18 people died there. Seven more were killed in Missouri.

Cuts to National Weather Service

The storms come as President Donald Trump’s administration makes deep cuts to the National Weather Service (NWS), or its parent organization, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Together, the two agencies provide accurate and timely forecasts to meteorologists and others and play a key role in forecasting tornadoes and warning people of impending danger. Meteorologists and other experts warn that the administration’s cuts to the agency could cost lives.

Impact of Cuts on Local Weather Stations

The NWS has lost 600 people through layoffs and retirements, according to The New York Times, leaving many local weather stations scrambling to cover shortfalls. The office in Jackson, Kentucky, for example, is 1 of 8 nationwide to abruptly end 24/7 forecasting after losing an overnight forecaster, and it’s now short about 31 percent of its staff. The Jackson office serves a large swath of eastern Kentucky, a rural region with patchy access to cell and internet that has been repeatedly battered by storms and floods over the past five years.

Private Forecasting Warnings

All of this comes as the private forecasting company AccuWeather warns that the United States is facing its worst tornado season in more than a decade.

Tornado Warning and Response

Even as the twister in eastern Kentucky passed, people began to speculate that NWS staffing cuts contributed to the death toll. Their suspicion stemmed from the tornado warning’s upgrade to a Particularly Dangerous Situation, a designation reserved for particularly severe situations with an imminent threat to life and property. That warning, meant to convey the need to take cover immediately, came shortly before the tornado touched down at around 11:07 p.m., several officials told Grist.

Role of Local Forecasters

That designation, called a PDS, came after the popular YouTube forecaster Ryan Hall Y’all, who is based in eastern Kentucky, urged everyone in the storm’s path to seek shelter around 10:45 p.m. Local television news meteorologists did so about the same time. “We just have to hope we’re doing a good job of getting that message out there because otherwise nobody would know,” Hall, who does not have formal meteorology training, told his audience around 10:54 p.m.

NWS Response and Defense

Although the NWS issued 90 alerts on May 16, including warnings about flash flooding and impending tornadoes, someone who identified himself as an NWS-trained weather spotter left a comment on Hall’s feed saying the agency issued the PDS only after he raised the issue. The National Weather Service defended its handling of the storm and the timeliness of its warnings in Kentucky, telling Grist in a statement that its offices in Louisville, Jackson, and Paducah “provided forecast information, timely warnings, and decision support in the days and hours leading up to the severe weather on May 16.

Concerns Over Staffing Cuts

Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees’ Organization, said the offices were fully staffed and that weather forecasting offices in multiple cities typically collaborate when extreme weather is expected. People on the north side of St. Louis were equally suspicious of the NWS response after they did not hear warning sirens go off, even though the system had been tested the day before the tornado.

Impact on Public Safety

Aliya Lyons only knew to take shelter thanks to the St. Louis University emergency alert system. “I didn’t hear any sirens,” she said. “And that was a major failure on the city’s part. Lives were lost. I can’t say if it was entirely because of the sirens. But it’s really heartbreaking — elders may not have a cellphone, cellphones might be dead.” She worries that the situation will only get worse; the Trump administration has proposed cutting NOAA’s budget by more than 25 percent.

Future of Weather Forecasting

Fahy said the NWS and its union are collaborating to realign staff to meet a “reduced service schedule.” The expectation will be that stations will work together to fill in gaps as needed. That may not do much to ease Bobby Day’s mind. He is the interim police chief in London and worked with city officials and first responders on emergency planning days before the tornado.

Conclusion

NOAA and the National Weather Service may well continue to deliver that level of precision even as the Trump administration slashes its budget and staffing. But meteorologists and others who deal with extreme weather worry that the suspicion and speculation that followed the tornadoes will only mount, undermining confidence in the agencies even as they become more vital to public safety. This frustrates Jim Caldwell, a meteorologist at local station WYMT-TV, who worries people will turn away from reputable, if strained, resources in favor of social media personalities like Hall — although Caldwell did not specifically mention him by name.

This article originally appeared in Grist at https://grist.org/extreme-weather/the-kentucky-tornadoes-spur-mounting-anxiety-over-weather-service-warning-systems/. Grist is a nonprofit, independent media organization dedicated to telling stories of climate solutions and a just future. Learn more at Grist.org.