According to IBM CEO Arvind Krishna, global trade remains a vital component of economic growth, despite the Trump administration’s criticism of globalism. In fact, Krishna believes that the US’s key to growth lies in embracing international trade, citing the work of 19th-century economists who found that every 10% increase in global trade leads to a 1% increase in local GDP.

During a recent interview at SXSW, Krishna emphasized the importance of global trade, stating, “If we want to really optimize even for local growth, you have to have global trade.” He also highlighted the need for the US to attract overseas talent, allowing them to bring their skills and expertise to the country, which would ultimately benefit the local workforce.

Krishna’s comments come as the administration and its allies have called for increased restrictions on student and H-1B work visas, which they claim put US citizens at a disadvantage. However, Krishna argues that the US should be an international talent hub, with policies that support the influx of global talent and promote knowledge sharing.

In addition to discussing geopolitics, Krishna also shared his thoughts on artificial intelligence (AI), describing it as a valuable technology that will make programmers more productive, rather than replacing them. He disagreed with a recent prediction that 90% of code may be written by AI in the next three to six months, estimating that the actual figure would be more like 20-30%.

Krishna believes that AI will augment the work of programmers, enabling them to produce more code with the same number of people, and ultimately driving business growth. While acknowledging that IBM has a vested interest in presenting AI as non-threatening, Krishna’s statements mark a reversal from his previous comments in 2023, when he said that the company planned to pause hiring in back-office functions that could be replaced with AI tech.

Krishna compared the debate over AI replacing workers to earlier discussions about calculators and Photoshop replacing mathematicians and artists. He acknowledged that there are unresolved challenges surrounding intellectual property and AI training, but ultimately sees the technology as a positive force that will improve the quality of products and services.

Looking ahead, Krishna predicts that AI will become cheaper and more energy-efficient, with emerging techniques like those demonstrated by Chinese AI startup DeepSeek enabling the development of smaller, more efficient models. However, he believes that AI is unlikely to help humanity arrive at new knowledge, and instead sees quantum computing as the key to accelerating scientific discovery.

Krishna’s views on AI differ from those of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who has argued that superintelligent AI is within the realm of possibility and could massively accelerate innovation. Nevertheless, Krishna remains optimistic about the potential of AI to drive growth and improvement, as long as it is seen as a tool that augments human capabilities, rather than replacing them.