Recent findings indicate that increased solar activity can lead to a shorter lifespan for SpaceX’s Starlink satellites, potentially causing them to reenter the Earth’s atmosphere at higher velocities. Interestingly, this could increase the risk of satellite debris making landfall, contrary to what one might expect.
A preprint study, which is awaiting peer review, contributes to the growing body of evidence that solar storms have a devastating impact on Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites. Over the past few years, the frequency and intensity of these storms have increased as the Sun approaches its solar maximum, the peak of its 11-year cycle. Simultaneously, the number of satellites in Earth’s orbit has surged, primarily due to the growth of private megaconstellations like Starlink.
A research team led by Denny Oliveira from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center analyzed the reentries of Starlink satellites between 2020 and 2024. This period coincided with the rising phase of the current solar cycle, leading up to the solar maximum in October 2024.
During this five-year period, 523 Starlink satellites reentered Earth’s atmosphere. Oliveira and his team used statistical techniques to identify patterns in the satellites’ orbital decay and reentry rates during periods of high solar activity.
The researchers discovered that geomagnetic activity, triggered by solar eruptions, causes Starlink satellites to reenter the Earth’s atmosphere earlier than expected. Although these satellites are designed to remain in orbit for approximately five years, severe geomagnetic storms can reduce their lifespan by 10 to 12 days, according to Oliveira.
Oliveira and his colleagues believe that geomagnetic activity heats the atmosphere, causing it to expand and increase drag on satellites, thereby shortening their lifespans and causing them to lose altitude more quickly. Furthermore, atmospheric drag may increase the likelihood of satellite-on-satellite collisions, as current orbital models do not fully account for the effects of geomagnetic activity. The team’s findings are currently available on the preprint server Source Link
