As Los Angeles reels from the loss of lives and homes to the Easton and Palisades fires, scientists are seeking to understand why the events of this January have been so catastrophic. Climate change is likely to have played a part in setting the stage for multiple fires to sweep through the region, according to analysis from the World Weather Attribution, an international research initiative.

“Eight of the eleven models examined also show an increase in extreme January Fire Weather Index, increasing our confidence that climate change is driving this trend,” the group stated of their .

Earth is currently 1.3°C hotter than it was before the industrial era began. The WWA found that extreme Fire Weather Index conditions are 35 percent more likely to occur in the LA area at this temperature. If the planet increases 2.6°C from its pre-industrial temperature, extreme conditions become another 35 percent more likely. Based on current policies, a 2.6°C higher temperature is the minimum increase the Earth is projected to reach by the year 2100.

The researchers noted, however, that the growing odds of those peak conditions are not a linear progression. Other factors also contributed to the widespread devastation across the Los Angeles area, including a lack of rain; the region had not received significant rainfall since May 2024. This type of drought condition is 2.4 times more likely at the Earth’s current temperature than at its pre-industrial level. Santa Ana winds also caused the rapid spread and difficulties containing the blazes. The team stated that the impact of wind is not always reflected well in climate models.

The World Weather Attribution conducts rapid studies into extreme weather events to analyze whether climate change was a factor. The international team of researchers aims to address the impact of climate in natural disasters “while the impacts of the extreme weather event are still fresh in the minds of the public and policymakers, and decisions about rebuilding are being made.”