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The foundation of a $100 billion industry is rooted in just four West African countries. The tropical nations of Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria are home to rows of cacao trees that produce pods containing dozens of seeds. After being harvested, these seeds are dried, roasted, and processed into a beloved product enjoyed worldwide.

For millennia, chocolate has been a coveted treat, and especially on Valentine’s Day, it serves as a quintessential symbol of love. However, due to the increasing erratic weather patterns driving up the costs of confectionery, chocolate has also become a symbol of something less romantic: climate change.

According to two reports released on Wednesday, warming temperatures are exceeding the optimal range for cacao growth in the countries that dominate the world’s supply, particularly during primary harvest seasons. The research highlights how the burning of oil, coal, and methane is affecting the planet’s cocoa belt, leading to skyrocketing chocolate prices.

Kristina Dahl, vice president for science at the nonprofit Climate Central, which wrote one of the two reports, stated, “One of the foods that the world loves the most is at risk due to climate change.” Dahl expressed her hope that by understanding the impact of human activities on cocoa growth, people might reassess their priorities as a species and consider actions to limit future climate change and its effects on this beloved food.

About 70 percent of the world’s cacao is grown in West Africa, primarily in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria. The remaining portion is grown in regions with similar climates near the equator, such as Indonesia and Ecuador. Cacao trees thrive in rainforest conditions characterized by high humidity, abundant rainfall, nitrogen-rich soil, and natural wind buffers. Exposure to temperatures above 89.6 degrees Fahrenheit leads to water stress, hinders plant growth, and reduces the quality and quantity of seeds produced by the trees.

Last year, warming added at least six weeks’ worth of days above that threshold in nearly two-thirds of cacao-producing areas across Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria. This likely contributed to a disastrous harvest, according to the Climate Central report.

The researchers examined temperature data for the region and compared it to estimates of what might have been experienced over the past decade in a world without human-induced warming. They discovered that between 2015 and 2024, climate change increased the number of days each country experiences temperatures above the ideal range for cacao growth by an average of two to four weeks annually. Most of those hotter days occurred during the main crop cycle, when the plants bloom and produce beans. Warming is also altering rain patterns, accelerating droughts, facilitating the spread of devastating diseases like pod rot, and contributing to soil degradation. Another new study found that low rates of pollination and higher-than-average temperatures in Ghana have combined to limit yields.

However, determining the exact impact of climate change on production and consumer prices remains a topic that is not well understood by scientists and economists. Dahl also noted that it is unknown which weather phenomenon has the largest impact on production, nor is it clear what influence El Niño had on last year’s harvests.

Emmanuel Essah-Mensah, a cocoa grower in Ghana, described climate change as one of the most pressing problems affecting production throughout West Africa. “The drought means we are losing 60 percent of our cocoa plants. I have seen a drastic decline in income, as have all the farmers in my farming cooperative,” Essah-Mensah told Grist.

Droughts, floods, and plant diseases that hit the region last year contributed to record cocoa prices, which in turn caused the cost of chocolate to jump, according to a report by the nonprofit Christian Aid, which works toward sustainable development and economic justice. Global cocoa production fell by about 14 percent in the 2023-24 season, and ahead of Valentine’s Day last year, the soaring price of cocoa on the futures market shattered a 47-year record.

Kat Kramer, co-author of the report and a climate policy consultant for the nonprofit, said the findings, and those of Climate Central, expose the industry’s vulnerability to climate change. “Chocolate lovers need to push companies and their governments to cut greenhouse gas emissions,” said Kramer, “otherwise chocolate supplies will tragically be at increasing climate risk.”

The implications of this go beyond the impact on this delectable delicacy. Cocoa is also used in other goods, such as cosmetics and pharmaceuticals, which account for a significant portion of the global market. However, chocolate remains the dominant product, with the U.S. importing around $2.8 billion worth of it every year — over 10 percent of the world’s supply.

Federal Reserve data suggests that global cocoa prices rose 144 percent in December, more than doubling from the year before, said Alla Semenova, an economist at St. Mary’s College of Maryland. This is known as the producer price, or what global chocolate manufacturers pay those who process the raw beans. However, this cost is often passed on to confectionary customers. “When producer prices rise, when the costs of production rise, consumer prices rise,” said Semenova.

Despite rising prices, the farmers growing cacao do not always benefit from the increased profit. Josephine George Francis, who produces cocoa alongside coffee on her farm in Liberia, said farmers throughout West Africa actually lose money due to the rising cost of growing crops in a warming world. “We need a different approach that puts sustainability and farmers at its heart,” said George Francis. “We do not benefit from increased prices on world markets.”

Of course, cocoa is not the only ingredient in confectioneries threatened by warming. Early last year, sugar, another essential ingredient, sold at some of the highest prices in over a decade after extreme weather constrained global sugarcane production.

“It is not just the quantity of cocoa production that is affected by the acceleration of climate change,” said Semenova. “The type and quality of the ingredients that go into the production of chocolate will change.”

As a result, many chocolatiers have begun to adapt. Some, like Mars and Hershey, have been quietly reducing the amount of cocoa or even introducing new treats that eliminate it entirely. As prices continue to rise, analysts expect to see demand wane, a trend even Valentine’s Day can’t stop.

This article originally appeared in Grist at https://grist.org/food-and-agriculture/climate-change-is-scorching-the-cocoa-belt-and-youre-paying-the-price/. Grist is a nonprofit, independent media organization dedicated to telling stories of climate solutions and a just future. Learn more at Grist.org