Introduction to the 2025 Fire Season

In January, devastating wildfires swept through Los Angeles, resulting in the loss of at least 30 lives and displacing hundreds of thousands of people. As the city begins to rebuild, concerns are mounting over the potential for a particularly brutal summer fire season. Experts warn that a combination of alarming environmental conditions and significant cuts to emergency response agencies could exacerbate the situation, making it challenging for the state to manage what is expected to be an active fire season.

The outlook for California’s 2025 fire season is grim, with critical resources, including fire response personnel, drastically depleted. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, expressed his concerns, stating, "I am not confident in our ability to respond to wildfire or concurrent disasters this summer." Unusually early mountain snowmelt, a dry winter, and above-average temperatures are the primary factors contributing to the increased frequency and intensity of California’s fires this year.

Factors Contributing to the 2025 Fire Season

Brian Fennessy, chief of the Orange County Fire Authority (OCFA), agrees with Swain’s assessment, stating that every predictive service model indicates that Southern California will experience an active peak fire year. The lack of significant tropical influence, which would bring high humidity and potential precipitation, increases the potential for large fires.

In a typical year, California’s mountain soils remain moist due to snowpack until July, and lower elevations are saturated from the state’s wet season. However, this is not a typical year. The seasonal mountain snowpack melted much faster than average, causing high-elevation soils to dry out earlier and jumpstarting wildfire season in California’s mountain regions. As a result, the higher mountain forest fire risk is likely to be higher than usual by July, August, and September.

Fire Season Sparks Early

In California’s low-lying regions, experts are already seeing an uptick in fire activity. The reasons vary, but in Southern California, it’s due to a very dry winter. The worst and most destructive fires on record in Los Angeles occurred in January, which is usually the peak of the rainy season. In low-lying, inland areas of Northern California, it’s been unseasonably hot for the past month, raising current fire risk and suggesting an incredibly hot summer.

Increased temperatures will make the landscape even drier and more flammable. Fires need fuel, and this year, there’s plenty of it. Over the past several years, California’s low-elevation regions have received significant rainfall, allowing grasses to flourish. As this vegetation continues to dry out, it could fuel fast-moving brush fires that can quickly engulf large areas.

National Interagency Fire Center’s Outlook

The National Interagency Fire Center’s significant wildland fire potential outlook predicts wildfire risk across the U.S. from June through September. The outlook shows large swaths of the West with above-normal fire risk throughout the summer. While scientists can’t forecast the timing, intensity, or exact location of future fires, the biggest question mark is ignition, which is near-impossible to predict.

Federal Cuts Add Fuel to the Fire

Since taking office, President Donald Trump has significantly reduced staff and proposed major budget cuts at multiple agencies that assist disaster response and recovery, including FEMA. The plans to phase out FEMA after hurricane season would shift the full burden of disaster recovery to the states, which Swain calls "a big concern." The U.S. Forest Service has also taken a hit, losing 10% of its workforce as of mid-April.

The cuts have impacted thousands of red card-holding federal employees who are trained and certified to respond to wildfires in times of need. The incident management teams that lead wildfire response and ensure the safety of firefighters on the ground have also been affected. Swain stated, "We lost both the infantry, if you will, and the generals in the wildland fire world."

Consolidation of Wildland Firefighting Forces

Trump recently ordered government officials to consolidate wildland firefighting forces into a single force. While restructuring might be a good idea in the long run, dismantling the organizational structure of wildland firefighting during the peak of what is expected to be a particularly severe fire season, with no specific plan to reconstitute it during said season, is not. Swain expressed concerns, stating, "Those are not the people we should be taking resources away from."

Despite federal uncertainties and a troubling forecast, Chief Fennessy said the OCFA is well-prepared for California’s fire season this year. All of their firefighters have completed their annual refresher training and have been briefed on what to expect through the rest of the calendar year and perhaps beyond. However, Swain still has concerns, stating, "Everybody involved is going to do their best, and there are going to be heroic efforts." Many firefighters will be putting in a lot of unpaid overtime and taking on even more stress and physical risk than usual this year.