Asteroid 2024 YR4: A Potential Threat to Earth

Odds are a funny thing. 1-in-100, for example, sounds like a long shot—until you find out it’s the chance that an asteroid will impact Earth. In a surprising—but not definitive—turn of events, early warning systems this week found that an asteroid set to swing by Earth in 2032 has a 1-in-63 chance of smashing into our planet. Here’s what you need to know about the asteroid, its potential impacts, and why there’s no reason to panic. At least not yet.

What We Know About Asteroid 2024 YR4

NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile first spotted the asteroid on December 27, 2024. ATLAS promptly reported the asteroid to the Minor Planet Center, a clearing house for the positional measurements of small bodies like asteroids and comets.

Asteroid Size and Orbit

The asteroid measures between 130 and 300 feet wide (40 to 90 meters), based on estimates from its reflected light. It’s currently moving away from Earth at 8.24 miles per second (13.26 kilometers per second).

Potential Impacts

According to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, 2024 YR4 could make impact on Earth six discrete times between 2032 and 2071, but the greatest likelihood is on December 22, 2032. The probability of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth is a significant concern, but not a reason to panic.

Prevention and Monitoring

“This is the one large-scale natural disaster that we can actually prevent,” said Dr. Betts. “The first thing you need to do is exactly what happened with this discovery—you need to find them.” Over the next few months, ESA is coordinating observations of the asteroid with more powerful telescopes, including the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope. Historical data on the object might help refine its orbital path, and space-based infrared observations could provide valuable insights.

Why There’s No Reason to Panic

Chodas told Gizmodo that space-based infrared observations would be ideal for observing the asteroid, but it’s difficult to justify using the Webb Space Telescope’s valuable observing time on the rock when scientists are still in the early stages of data collection and its impact probability remains relatively low. “We often get asked, ‘Are you worried?’” Chodas said. “With a 99% chance that this asteroid will miss, no. The community is not worried, but we must pay attention to it. Because even though 1% is very small, the asteroid is of a size that it could cause serious damage.”