Iran Earthquake: Debunking the Rumors of a Secret Nuclear Test

On October 5, 2024, a magnitude 4.5 earthquake struck Iran, causing widespread concern and speculation about the cause of the quake. Social media platforms quickly filled with rumors that the earthquake was not a natural event, but a secret Iranian nuclear weapons test.

A Study Debunks the Claims

Researchers led by Johns Hopkins University have published a study that debunks these claims, confirming that the earthquake was a normal seismic event. The study, published on February 3, 2025, in the journal Seismica, highlights the risk of weaponized scientific misinformation during periods of geopolitical tension.

Analyzing the Earthquake

Using publicly available data from seismic monitoring stations, seismologists analyzed the event and concluded that the source of the earthquake was a reverse fault, a motion associated with the Earth’s crust being crushed as the Arabian and Eurasian plates collide. The researchers categorically ruled out any association between the event and a secret nuclear test.

Nuclear Test Signatures

Nuclear tests have distinct signatures, which are explosive and different from the characteristics of a natural earthquake. The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), which tracks nuclear tests around the globe, confirmed that similar earthquakes had occurred in the region in 2015 and 2018.

The Spread of Misinformation

Rumors of a nuclear test quickly spread on social media, with the first post appearing on X less than 20 minutes after the trembler. The misinformation spread rapidly, highlighting incorrect interpretations of seismic data and attracting conspiracy theories. The researchers identified active disinformation and noted that the first suggestion of a nuclear test appeared 27 minutes after the shaking.

Global Reaction

Newspapers around the world quickly picked up on the frenzy, including outlets in the U.S., France, the U.K., Israel, India, Pakistan, and Zimbabwe. Mainstream English-language media outlets "almost exclusively speculated" on the idea that the event may have been a nuclear test, providing credence and visibility to misinformed interpretations of complex seismic data.

The Role of Social Media

The researchers found that Persian-language media generally reported the event more accurately, frequently relying on local experts. They suggested that scientific agencies could issue detailed reports swiftly to counter misinformation and that social media platforms could amplify verified scientific accounts to reduce the misleading narrative.

Conclusion

The study highlights how scientific misinformation could have dire global consequences. The researchers’ findings emphasize the need for careful consideration of the sources of information and the importance of verifying scientific claims to prevent the spread of misinformation.